I live in central Florida so I’m running a few numbers about the state and the potential for deaths caused by the coronavirus. I’ve collected age/population numbers for Florida. I’m multiplying the total population for each age group by the death rates by age group in Italy to get an idea of the maximum number of potential deaths (if EVERY person in these age groups were infected).
Here are the current death rates in Italy by age group (Link)
Age group 50-59: 1.9%
Age group 60-69: 6.8%
Age group 70-79: 19%
Age group 80-up: 26%
Here are the population totals for those age groups in Florida (Link)
50-54 1,302,262 55-59 1,470,728 Total 2,772,990 * .019 = 52,687
60-64 1,443,760 65-69 1,291,871 Total 2,735,631 * .068 = 186,023
70-74 1,149,780 75-79 845,997 Total 1,995,777 * .19 = 379,198
80-84 578,645 85-up 598,876 Total 1,177,521 * .26 = 306,155
Total potential deaths = 924,063.
Again, that’s if everyone got infected and the death rates were similar to those in Italy. So. What percentage, in these age groups, of Florida’s population will become infected. 5%? That might mean 46,000 deaths. Pick your own percentage.
Also, bear in mind that the above figures are for permanent residents and that we get thousands of ‘snow birds’ — retirees from northern states who winter here. Many have cut short their visits in order to go back home. Others are hunkering down here because they are nervous about traveling at this time.
